The Week Ahead – Trade Data, Monetary Policy Meetings, China Performance

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Commercial data

The Statistics Department is expected to release July foreign trade data on Friday.

The trade surplus is expected to be around RM18 billion while exports rose 40.6% in July, according to the median of a Reuters poll of economists.

Malaysia’s total trade in June hit a new high of RM270.4 billion, up 43.4% from a year earlier as both export and import figures continued to rise.

However, as imports grew faster than exports, the country’s trade surplus narrowed by 0.8% year-on-year (YOY) to RM21.9 billion.

Meanwhile, a handful of company results are expected this week, including Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd.Sime Darby BhdMISC BhdBhd Dialog Group and Brewery Carlsberg Malaysia Bhd.

Monetary policy meetings

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will announce their monetary policy this week.

BSP indicated a rate hike of 50 basis points (bps). According to a Bloomberg survey, two analysts expect BSP to rise 25 basis points while one expects a 50 basis point rise to 2.75% and another expects a decline of 2.75%. 25 basis points at 3%.

UOB Global Economics and Market Research revised its BSP rate call for a 50 basis point hike in the overnight repo rate to 3.75%.

ING thinks it is still likely despite the recent disappointing Gross Domestic Product report.

According to a Bloomberg survey, all five economists surveyed expect the RBNZ official rate to rise 50 basis points to 3%.

China performance

DATA expected from China this week includes industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment and medium-term lending facilities.

Bloomberg estimates that industrial production is expected to rise 4.4% year-on-year in July, from 3.9% in June, while retail sales are expected to rise 5% year-on-year, from 3.1% in June.

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