June sees a record slowdown in home price growth, the biggest monthly gain in inventories in 12 years; Prices are falling in some major markets

  • Annual house price growth fell nearly two percentage points in June – the biggest one-month slowdown on record since at least the early 1970s – with the rate of slowdown this month jumping 66% compared to May
  • While June’s slowdown hit records, home price growth is expected to slow at this pace for another six months to bring annual appreciation back to 5%, a rate more in line with long-term averages.
  • It could be five months or more before the full impact of recent interest rate spikes is reflected in traditional house price indexes, suggesting the possibility of an even steeper downturn ahead.
  • Localized slowdowns were even more pronounced; 25% of major markets saw home price growth rates slow by three percentage points, four of which slowed by four points or more in June alone
  • Although data from Black Knight’s Collateral Analytics shows a seasonally adjusted rate of 22% (114K) increase in number of homes for sale over the past two months, inventory is still 54% below 2017-2019 levels
  • Faced with a national shortage of 716K listings, it would take more than a year of such record increases for inventory levels to fully normalize
  • Some metro markets are returning to pre-pandemic inventory levels faster than the national rate, with price gains softening or even showing early signs of price reversal in response
  • With the supply/demand equation changing rapidly, some of these markets, notably San Jose, California. (-5.1%), Seattle (-3.8%) and San Francisco (-2.8%) – now seeing house prices pull back from recent highs

JACKSONVILLE, Florida., August 1, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — Today, the Data & Analytics division of Black Knight, Inc. (NYSE: BKI) released its latest Mortgage Monitor report, based on industry-leading mortgage, real estate and the company’s public records. With June marking the sharpest deceleration in house price growth on record, this month’s report dives deep into the latest housing market trends, looking specifically at house price appreciation and trends in stocks for sale nationally and metropolitanly. According to the President of Black Knight Data & Analytics Ben GraboskJune’s slowdown from 19.3% to 17.3% in annual home price growth coincided with the biggest monthly gain in homes listed for sale in 12 years.

“June’s pullback in house price growth marked the biggest slowdown month on record since at least the early 1970s — and it wasn’t even close,” Graboske said. “According to the Black Knight HPI, the annual rate of appreciation fell nearly two full points in June. percentage – compared to what we saw last month – and June exceeded that figure by 66%.The slowdown was widespread across the top 50 markets at the metro level, with some regions experiencing even more pronounced cooling. , 25% of major U.S. markets saw growth slow by three percentage points in June, with four decelerations of four or more points in that month alone.Yet despite being the sharpest slowdown ever recorded nationally, we would need another six months of this type of slowdown for price growth to return to long-term averages.five months for the effects of interest rates to be fully reflected in the traditional house price indices, we are unlikely to see the full effect of recent rate hikes yet, with the potential for an even steeper downturn in the months ahead.

“We are also seeing significant shifts in the demand-supply equation, although that too still has a long way to go before normalization. Even with our Collateral Analytics data showing a seasonally adjusted 22% increase in the number of homes put up for sale Over the past two months, the market is still showing a 54% shortfall in listings from 2017 to 2019 levels. With a nationwide shortage of over 700,000 listings, it would take more than a year such record increases for inventory levels to completely normalize.Of course, some metro areas are seeing their inventory come back on the market faster than others. San Francisco officially returned to pre-pandemic levels in June, becoming the first major market to do so, with San Jose just behind, where the number of homes for sale is only 1% below the June 2017-2019 average. It is therefore not surprising to find the two metros among the markets where prices are retreating from recent highs, as well as Seattle, San Diego, denver and others.”

Digging deeper into June house price data, the report finds the average San Jose home values ​​fell 5.1% (-$75,000) in the past two months alone, marking the sharpest pullback from recent highs among the top 50 U.S. markets. Seattle follows with a 3.8% drop in house prices over the same period, a reduction of more than $30,000. San Francisco (-2.8%, –$35,000), San Diego (-2%, –$19.5,000) and denver (-1.4%, –$8.7K) completes the top five. In total, prices have retreated from recent highs in 12 of the 50 largest markets, with seven down 1% or more. As nearly 10% of mortgaged properties have been purchased in the past year, this could affect a significant number of borrowers who have been buying into the market at or near recent highs.

The Mortgage Monitor also found that the obvious driver behind recent inventory increases is a drop in sales activity due to rising rates and the lowest affordability levels in nearly 40 years. Seasonally-adjusted home sales are down more than 21% year-to-date, with Black Knight Optimal Blue rate lockout data suggesting a further slowdown in the months ahead. Taking into account both active listings and sales volumes, the market went from a low of 1.7 months of inventory at the start of the year to 2.6 months in June. If current trends continue, inventory months could continue to rise sharply in the coming months. Black Knight will continue to monitor the situation and report its findings in the future.

Much more information on these and other topics can be found in this month’s Mortgage Monitor.

About Mortgage Monitor

Black Knight’s Data & Analytics division maintains the nation’s leading repository of loan-level residential mortgage data and performance information covering the majority of the global market, including tens of millions of loans across all of Black Knight’s products. credit and over 160 million historical records. . The combined view of home price and real estate data from Black Knight HPI and Collateral Analytics provides one of the most comprehensive, accurate and timely measures of home prices available, covering 95% of US residential properties up to at postcode level. Additionally, the company maintains one of the strongest databases of public property records available, covering 99.9% of the US population and households in over 3,100 counties.

Black Knight’s research experts carefully analyze this data to produce a summary supplemented by dozens of tables and graphs that reflect trends and point observations for the Monthly Mortgage Monitor Report. To view the full report, visit: https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/

About the Dark Knight

Black Knight, Inc. (NYSE: BKI) is an award-winning software, data and analytics company that drives innovation in the mortgage and real estate lending and servicing industries, as well as in capital markets and secondary. Businesses leverage our robust integrated solutions across the homeownership lifecycle to help retain existing customers, win new customers, mitigate risk and operate more efficiently.

Our customers rely on our proven, comprehensive, and scalable products and our unwavering commitment to providing superior customer support to achieve their strategic goals and better serve their customers. For more information about Black Knight, please visit www.blackknightinc.com/.

For more information:

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SOURCEBlack Knight, Inc.


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